Who Will Win the 2025 Ballon d’Or?
The Ballon d’Or, the most prestigious individual award in football, sparks debates and predictions every year. After Lionel Messi’s triumph in 2023 and Kylian Mbappé’s victory in 2024, who will claim the title in 2025?
As the season reaches its decisive phase, several players are already standing out in the race for the 2025 Ballon d’Or. Here are the top candidates and their chances of winning the prestigious trophy.
1. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid) – On His Way to a Second Ballon d’Or?
- Current Achievements: 2024 Ballon d’Or winner, 2024 Champions League winner with PSG
After transferring to Real Madrid in the summer of 2024, Kylian Mbappé is having an exceptional season with his new club. Currently the top scorer in both LaLiga and the Champions League, he has quickly found chemistry with Vinícius Jr and Jude Bellingham.
If Real Madrid wins the Champions League, and if Mbappé shines with France at Euro 2024, he will be the clear favorite to win a second consecutive Ballon d’Or.
Chances of Winning: (Very High)
2. Erling Haaland (Manchester City) – The Unstoppable Goal Machine
- Current Achievements: 2023 Ballon d’Or winner, historic treble with Manchester City (2023)
After a record-breaking 2023 season, where he scored over 50 goals, Haaland continues to dominate European defenses. If Manchester City wins another Champions League title in 2025, and if Haaland finishes as the top scorer, he will be a strong contender.
However, Norway’s absence from Euro 2024 might work against him, as international tournaments play a key role in Ballon d’Or voting.
Chances of Winning: (High)
3. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid) – The New Leader of Los Blancos
- Current Achievements: 2024 FIFA Player of the Year, LaLiga & Spanish Super Cup winner
Since joining Real Madrid, Jude Bellingham has established himself as one of the world’s best midfielders. His ability to score goals, dictate play, and dominate matches makes him a serious contender.
If he has a trophy-laden season (Champions League, LaLiga, and a strong Euro 2024 with England), he could become a surprise Ballon d’Or winner.
Chances of Winning: (Medium)
4. Vinícius Jr (Real Madrid) – The Brazilian Maestro
- Current Achievements: 2024 Ballon d’Or runner-up, Copa América 2024 Best Player
Vinícius Jr continues to electrify the Santiago Bernabéu with his dribbles, goals, and decisive performances. With Mbappé’s arrival, he could form a deadly duo at Real Madrid.
If he shines in the Champions League and helps Brazil win Copa América 2024, he could win his first-ever Ballon d’Or.
Chances of Winning: (High)
5. Lionel Messi & Cristiano Ronaldo – A Final Surprise?
- Current Achievements: Messi (8 Ballon d’Ors), Ronaldo (5 Ballon d’Ors)
Although they are no longer at the peak of European football, Messi and Ronaldo remain living legends. Messi is playing in MLS with Inter Miami, while Ronaldo continues to score goals in Saudi Arabia.
A Ballon d’Or win in 2025 seems unlikely, but with them, nothing is impossible.
Chances of Winning: (Low)
Our Prediction: Mbappé as the Favorite, Haaland in Contention
At the mid-season point, Kylian Mbappé appears to be the frontrunner for the 2025 Ballon d’Or. His seamless adaptation at Real Madrid, individual brilliance, and potential trophies give him the edge.
However, Haaland, Bellingham, and Vinícius Jr remain strong challengers, and everything could change before the award ceremony.